Category Archives: Bayesian

Reflection on 538, Trump, and Bayes

Was the run-up to the recent election an example of failed statistics? Pundits have been saying how bad the polling was. Sure, there might have been some things pollsters could have done better, but consider: FiveThirtyEight, on the morning of the election, … Continue reading

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Bayes is Baaack

Actually teaching every day again has seriously cut into my already-sporadic posting. So let me be brief, and hope I can get back soon with the many insights that are rattling around and beg to be written down so I … Continue reading

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Science and Bayes

Right now, I’m pedaling really hard as I’m teaching a super-compressed (3 hours per day) math class for secondary-credential students. That’s my excuse for the slow-down in Bayes posts. The other being the ongoing problem that it takes me hours … Continue reading

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A Bayesian Example: Two coins, three heads.

As laid out (apparently not too effectively) here, I’m on a quest, not only finally to learn about Bayesian inference, but also to assess how teachable it is. Of course I knew the basic basics, but anything in stats is … Continue reading

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The Search for a Great Bayesian Example

When we teach about the Pythagorean Theorem, we almost always, at some point, use a 3-4-5 triangle. The numbers are friendly, and they work. We don’t usually make this explicit, but I bet that many of us also carry that … Continue reading

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Early Bump in the Bayesian Road: a Search for Intuition

Last time, I introduced a quest—it’s time I learned more about Bayesian inference—and admitted how hard some of it is. I wrote, The minute I take it out of context, or even very far from the ability to look at the picture, I … Continue reading

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A Closet Bayesian

At least that’s how I’ve described myself, but it’s a weak sort of Bayesianism because I’ve never really learned how to do Bayesian inference. It’s time that chapter came to a close. So, with luck, this is the first in … Continue reading

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